Only a couple of days left until we vote. And the remain campaign warning of [1] economic turmoil if we leave the EU, but are you somebody who says [2] Bring on the Crash, Britain needs it.

The international investor George Soros has warned of [3] serious consequences for the UK economy if we vote to leave the EU on Thursday. In an article for the Guardian, he adds his voice to many other experts. He writes: [4] the value of the pound would decline precipitously if we leave, [5] it would also have an immediate and dramatic impact on financial markets, investment, prices and jobs. Mr Soros believes [6] the devaluation of our currency would be bigger and more disruptive than the one in 1992, when we were forced out of the exchange rate mechanism, effectively chased out by him - he made a huge profit.

The Soros warning might remind you of George Osborne's prediction that [7]house prices could fall by 18% over 2 years, if Britain opts for Brexit. But hang on a minute, are you somebody whose struggling to get onto the property ladder. And you cry: [8] bring on the crash, because it's the only way you're ever going to own your own place. Maybe, you're a manufacturer who says [9] a crashing pound, would be a wonderful boost for your exports. If there is [10] financial turmoil, because of a no vote, wouldn't quite a lot of people do well out of it. Here to talk more about this is our reporter Tim Johns:

Recently the pound has been all over the place and financial reporters have been working hard to keep up with the latest

...as the opinion [11] polls are inching in leaves favour, the pound was losing some of its value, at the weekend remain seemed to gather a bit more steam and so people covering those positions are saying actually [12]we're going to remain and so Stirling will gain again. It's very volatile, we've been lower than this, we've been higher than this but this is a big one day gain"

Indeed the word [13] "volatile" sums up some of the turmoil over the last few weeks but [14] if Brexit occurs could this financial turmoil worsen, even if it does, and by the way, leave campaigners say [1] "this is all over hyped," perhaps for some people, it wouldn't actually be such a bad thing, more on that thought in just a moment. Last week George Osborne told us that, if we vote for leave:

[15] we'd wake up with no economic plan for our country, with financial instability, with years of uncertainty

he said we'd be:

[16]a country that is not just immediately poorer because of the uncertainty in the financial markets and the like but for decades ahead.

Ian Duncan Smith meanwhile accused the chancellor of hamming it all up:

..[2] just appears to be talking the economy down, deliberately, in the hope that somehow that will panic everybody, panic the markets, in the next 7 days and then force people to vote for remain because they'll be so scared

Whoever's right, it's all about this:

George Osborne: [17] "Uncertainty in the financial markets",

IDS: [18] "Panic the markets",

BBC Voice: [19] "It's very volatile",

The legendary investor, George Soros made a fortune betting against the pound in 1992 when the government withdrew Stirling from the European Exchange rate mechanism, he writes in the Guardian, that if Brexit occurs,

BBC voice for George Soros: [20] I would expect a devaluation to be bigger and more disruptive than the 15% devaluation that occurred in September 1992.

Vote leave say that the [3] UK would ultimately be more prosperous outside the UK(misspoke). But lets entertain the thought that Mr Soros is partly right. [21] A falling pound is bad for all sorts of reasons, not least because [22] buying an ice cream on the beach in Spain becomes more expensive, as does that [23 ]new flat screen TV made in Taiwan, because all imports become more expensive.

However it's great for exporters, goods we export become better value which makes us more competitive and more likely to attract foreign investment, so perhaps some people in the export trade are thinking, great,[24] bring on a crash. Then there's this:

George Osborne: [25] There will be a significant shock to the housing market, that would hit the value of peoples homes, [26] would hit the cost of mortgages

George Osborne again. [27] The International Monetary Fund too has said that Brexit could trigger plummeting house prices, On the leave side they say

IDS: [4] project fear has really gone into hyper space, quite frankly

and dismiss talk of a housing market crash.

But again, lets just entertain the thought for a moment. It wouldn't be great news for millions of home owners, [28] as value is wiped off their property. But what about first time buyers, struggling with sky high house prices. The Daily Telegraphs, Jeremy Warner, writes the following:

BBC voice for Jeremy Warner: if prices were a bit cheaper, and therefore more affordable, I would wager that most people would be a good deal happier. This is obviously the case for first time buyers trying to climb onto the housing ladder, but it's also true for those already on it, since all house prices move together and the next step up would therefore become relatively cheaper,

There are a lot of ifs...if we leave...[29] if the pound struggles... [30] if house prices take a knock. Just perhaps for some people, there would be a sort of economic silver lining where they weren't necessarily expecting one.

Okay, so should we be so worried about this so called [31] crash. Are you somebody who says Bring it on. We're talking to Lara Prendergast who's online editor of the Spectator Magazine, and also on the line from the City of London, Rupert Harrison a senior strategist at Black Rock the world's biggest asset manager and the former chief of staff for George Osborne, as well. So Lara first of all, on houses, I'm guessing you're in your twenties, you've got friends who say please look we need one.

Yes, most of my friends can't afford a property so when Osborne says there's a chance there might be a [32] housing crash, a lot of people thought that would be great, because how else are we going to afford to buy a house.

Because at the moment where your friends or yourself are looking they're just what, they're kind of sky high, are they?

Yes, they're sky high, they're totally out of proportion to what people's salaries are, and basically it's soaring off into the distance so, you know, if someone comes along and says let's [33] break up the whole system and see what happens, it is quite enticing.

Is there any other part of it that entices you, I'm thinking, for example, [34] we're told shares might crash, I guess they then become more affordable too?

Exactly, not that many people I know have shares so, when people are talking about [35] investments falling, it doesn't seem that relevant, but [36] the housing market and the housing crisis is one of the key political issues for people of my generation, when it comes up in conversation, we start listening.

Have you, I don't know whether you're in London or elsewhere, but are you, give us an example where a friend of yours goes round a flat and it costs how much?

Half a million, probably

Half a million for what a one bedroom, two bedroom flat.

I think a two bedroom flat in zones 2 or 3 would be around that, and you know this is very different to what George Osborne's generation had when they first moved to London, or any where really in the country, property prices are rocketing all round.

So Rupert Harrison, when George Osborne says [37] if we leave the EU property prices might go down by 18%, he's actually suggesting that we vote out isn't he?

Well I understand that if, for young people who don't own property it sounds tempting - [38] a house price crash, but I think in this case you have to be careful what you wish for, because we've got to understand the reason's for why [39] house prices would be falling and the reasons would be: [40] a smaller economy in the UK; [41] probably rising unemployment; [42] less job security and in all likelihood a bit of [43]a mortgage [availability] freeze initially and then if mortgages did become available again, [44] mortgages that actually were harder to get, so, I think, actually, while a [45] house price crash sounds tempting, for most people in that situation it would actually [46] get harder to get on the property ladder and as a country [47] we'd be poorer.

They'd presumably [48] crash because of a simple lack of confidence that they would be going, that they were going to be worth that much again. Again I know you're speaking up for people who own houses, because your generation have been lucky enough to get them. You bought them when they were lower value.

Well it's not really that, at Black Rock we have to try and make informed judgements for our investors, people saving for their pensions, what's going to go up in value, what's going to go down in value, I'm not defending anyone, I'm trying to make a balanced judgement which is what we have to do everyday.

And what about shares, again, isn't there a good reason why we might actually want [49] share's to go down for a while to three and half thousand to see the footsie down that low.

Again, I think it's be careful what you wish for, I mean most people don't think they own shares, they probably do through their [50] pension, which is probably largely invested in the stock market, so, again, if the stock market falls, most of us will get poorer, and I think that comes back to the big picture here which is, talk about George Soros, this is actually very different from 1992 when he made a killing selling the pound. Back then we were actually pegged artificially to an exchange rate that was too high for the UK and, ironically, black Wednesday was the beginning of a recovery for the UK economy because we were able to cut interest rates by a lot and that was the beginning of a recovery. This is going to be very different [51] if the pound falls after people vote to leave the European Union that's going to be the result of a general loss of confidence in the UK economy, people expecting [52] lower growth. It's a very, very different scenario.

So Lara, in a way, Rupert is saying, [53] don't wish for this, because if you do have more affordable flats it's part of a bigger picture that's bad for the country.

I see what Rupert's saying but again, a lot of my generation don't have a pension, we don't have shares, these things are not hugely relevant to us at this point. I think there is a general feeling that why not [54] tear things up and see what happens, you know.

[55] Tear it up Rupert. 'Cos there's two groups of people here, aren't there Rupert. There are the people who own assets and people who want to own them. And what we've got is we're being lectured by people who own assets that we need to do whatever we can to maintain there value. And at some point people who don't own them, might just smell a rat.

I think the reality is pretty different actually because the [56] people who really suffer the most when the economy is in a recession or growing slowly are young people. What young people really want most of all is good jobs, and decent careers and that is actually what is hit the most if there is a [57] loss of confidence in the UK economy and [58] unemployment starts to rise, so I don't think, you know, tear it all down, may sound like a kind of nice slogan if you're feeling a bit rebellious, but in reality, I think the [59] reality would be pretty grim.

But there was a reason we were all punks when we were twenty five, Rupert, wasn't there, which is at some point when, I'm sure this was you as well Rupert, you didn't wear a suit

Your not a punk any more are you.

No I'm not, and you're probably not either.

You saw sense.

Yes sure, but you can see why at some point that generation say look the way our parents have done it is wrong.

I mean the evidence actually suggests that most [60] young people are going to vote for remain because they have an internationalist outlook.

Laura, why is that, explain that puzzle, because [61] if you want to tear it up, in your phrase, you'd vote out wouldn't you?

I think Rupert's right, a lot of people, a lot of young people are thinking of voting out(misspoke), which is why when Osborne said this it was perhaps a mistake. He was obviously trying to appeal to older people who are more likely to vote out and in an unintentional manner he managed to convince quite a lot of young people it might be worth [62] breaking it all up. Rupert talks about people having a career and a good job, but ultimately if you [63] can't even afford a house afterwards what's the point of all of that.

Rupert just give us a bit of help with the currency as well because, I know you're the currency expert, but ok, let us say the [64] pound crashes, there are many, many good things about that, are there not, for example, we can exporters will have an absolute field day because it will be much cheaper to send there goods abroad?

Well for an economy like the UK, the exchange rate really, acts as a shock absorber and so in that sense we'd be hit with [65] a vote to leave with a big loss of confidence in the UK economy, [66] businesses would invest a lot less, and we probably, I think [67] most economists agree probably, would have some kind of recession, now the [68] currency would fall and that acts as a shock absorber for some businesses who are exporting to the rest of the world, but actually if you speak to most businesses what they really want is stability and predictability so they can invest over time and actually for most UK exporters now they're not really competing on price, we are not selling clothes or widgets around the world where you win the contract if you're the cheapest. We're actually selling jet engines, financial services, pharmaceutical products, where it's about quality, about long term relationships with your customers. And we saw that [69] after the financial crisis, Sterling fell a long way in 2008/2009. People expected that was going to lead to a big increase in exports, as you're saying, and it didn't. And I think that's largely because of the kind of things we make now in this country are very different, where it's not all about price, it's about quality.

And Laura, [70] it also hits people who buy stuff with their pounds, whether it's a flat screen TV, as Tim Johns our reporter was saying, imported from Taiwan, or going abroad and sitting on a beach in Spain. Would that worry you, if the pound became cheaper?

I think it would worry me a bit perhaps, but not perhaps as much as the [71] housing market. I think ultimately that is quite a convincing reason to shake things up.

Thank you very much indeed Lara Prendergast who's online editor of the spectator magazine and Rupert Harrison senior strategist at Black Rock, the World's biggest asset manager, who used to work with George Osborne.

Right, that was a really interesting discussion wasn't it about when [72] experts warn that there's going to be a crash, if we leave the EU, whether actually the people who say, oh my goodness [73] that would be terrible, are all older people like me, like you [the listener] maybe with assets that we don't want to be reduced in value and younger people saying excuse me we actually need those [74] assets to come down a bit, houses especially.

[75] if house prices and share prices crash, so would wages crash and there would be job losses. But when asset prices rise again, employment and wages wont come back as fast.

So maybe you can't disentangle the two.

If imports more expensive our exports will go up.

[76] I suppose the other thing is if we can't afford to buy BMW's maybe we would buy more of the cars we make ourselves, I don't know.

Build British, Sell British

This is interesting isn't it whether actually we need a crash. And [77] a crash in the housing market and the pound would not be a bad thing.

If brexit is so bad, why did government call a referendum.

(made no comment)

Say's her family have properties, but they tell her it's ok for her to keep renting.

But they never would [rent].

So the thing is whether you say look family, [78] you've all got assets, I've go no assets, I'm going to vote to get out of the EU, so your assets crash and I can buy them. Would you dare to say that?

Say's leaving ERM in 80s was wisest decision Britain has made. The economy bounced back to be one of the best in Europe

So hang on, let me just work out the logic here, we had that awful crash in 92 when we slipped out the exchange rate mechanism, or was pushed out by George Soros. We then had, what was it, 18 years of growth or something. But that's a strange argument that, you know, [79] you want to put the economy on the floor, just so you can move it up a bit.

Are you in your 20s, 30s?

41

Right can you explain why it is that younger people are much more likely to vote to stay when, as we're discussing, it seems to be in their interests for there to be [80] an almighty crash in the housing market for starters.

Say's down to schools telling young people what to think.